They say you make your own luck, and for Chris Beard and the Rebels, today marks a pivotal moment to not only regroup but to ignite a true revival after a challenging stretch both on the road and at home over the past month. Ole Miss stands at 11-13 overall and 3-8 in SEC play, an ironic mirror of their rivals, Mississippi State, who visit Oxford today for a Valentine’s evening showdown.
The Bulldogs enter this matchup following a loss to Tennessee, where Josh Hubbard delivered an impressive performance with 31 points. Ole Miss boasts a solid home record of 7-0, with five of those games decided by at least ten points.
As they prepare for tonight’s action, Mississippi State holds a 3-8 record against conference opponents. Notably, two of their three matchups this season have been closely contested, separated by three points or less.
While Ole Miss has relied heavily on its defense, they will need to step up offensively in front of their home crowd. The Rebels’ average of 7.5 made three-pointers per game aligns perfectly with the defensive average that Mississippi State concedes. On the other hand, Mississippi State has shot at an impressive 44.2% from the field this season—1.8 percentage points higher than what Ole Miss’s opponents have averaged (42.4%).
Rebels Spotlight Players:
AJ Storr leads the Rebels with an average of 14.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Ilias Kamardine contributes significantly as well, averaging 10.5 points and 3.3 assists over his last ten games.
Bulldogs Spotlight Players:
For the Bulldogs, Hubbard averages 2.7 made three-pointers per game while scoring 21.0 points and shooting 32.3% from beyond the arc. Jayden Epps has also been impactful lately, averaging 11.5 points over his last ten outings.
The Last Ten Games:
In their last ten games, Ole Miss holds a record of 3-7 while averaging 73.3 points along with 29.8 rebounds, 11.7 assists, 6.1 steals, and 3.7 blocks per game on a shooting percentage of 42.3%. Their opponents have averaged a high-scoring rate of 80.2 points per game.
Conversely, Mississippi State is struggling at 2-8 during this stretch; they average 70.4 points along with strong rebounding numbers (35) but face challenges defensively as their opponents score an average of nearly 80 points against them.
Despite recent hardships for Chris Beard’s squad on the hardwood, analytics and Vegas seem optimistic about Ole Miss rising from adversity at home tonight; they are favored by 3.5 -points in this matchup, while ESPN’s prediction model gives them a robust chance—68.5%—to secure victory against Mississippi State’s estimated upset probability of just 31.5%. The Rebels are set for tip-off from the SJB Pavilion at 5:30 PM CT and will be live on ESPN 2. We will be on hand to bring you all the live action.