In the world of college basketball, postseason matchups can often be deceptive. On paper, the upcoming showdown between No. 5 Ole Miss and No. 12 Gonzaga appears to favor the Rebels, but the Bulldogs bring a potent weapon to the court: elite 3-point shooting. Gonzaga ranks second nationally in 3-point percentage, trailing only UConn, with Allie Turner leading the charge at an impressive 46.7% from beyond the arc. This shooting prowess could very well tip the scales in their favor.
Ole Miss has shown it can rise to the occasion, having upset No. 2 seed Vanderbilt twice this season and narrowly falling to No. 1 seed Texas by just three points. However, inconsistency has been a persistent issue for the Rebels. They stumbled against non-tournament teams like Kansas State, Florida, and Texas A&M—games that have haunted their season.
Historically, No. 12 seeds have faced challenges in recent tournaments, going 0-4 for two consecutive years after a mixed record in 2022 and 2023. Yet there’s a sense that this year’s No. 12s could be poised for a breakthrough.
In their last outing, Ole Miss suffered an 85-68 defeat against Texas despite strong performances from Cotie McMahon and Denim DeShields, who each scored 20 points; DeShields also contributed five assists. Conversely, Gonzaga enters this matchup with momentum from a solid 76-66 victory over Oregon State, led by Lauren Whittaker’s impressive stat line of 26 points, nine rebounds, and two steals.
Breaking down the numbers reveals more about each team’s strengths:
- Ole Miss:
- Scoring Differential: +457
- Average Points Scored: 75.4 (36th nationally)
- Average Points Allowed: 62 (127th)
- Leading Scorer: Cotie McMahon (19.9 PPG, ranked 18th nationally)
- Gonzaga:
- Scoring Differential: +326
- Average Points Scored: 74.4 (45th)
- Average Points Allowed: 64.5 (185th)
- Leading Scorer: Lauren Whittaker (19.4 PPG, ranked 25th nationally)
Despite the ups and downs this season, Coach Yo’s Rebels have consistently shown resilience when facing adversity—a quality that has kept them returning to postseason play year after year.
The key matchup to watch here will be the Gonzaga offense vs Ole Miss’ signature dictate and desrupt defense, which restricts opponents to just 62.0 points per game. The Rebels wrapped up their SEC season with a record of 10-9. Now, they are eager to harness their physical style of play as they face off against the Bulldogs.
What do the analytics say? ESPN’s matchup predictor favors Ole Miss significantly, giving them an overwhelming 86.2% chance to advance compared to Gonzaga’s mere 13.8%. Vegas seems to agree as well, establishing Ole Miss as a clear favorite with a -12.5 point spread heading into this highly anticipated March Madness showdown.
Fans won’t want to miss this thrilling contest live on ESPN2 when tip-off is set for today at 2:30 PM CT from Williams Arena in Minneapolis.